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Since 2016

Since 2016

How the UK's economy has moved relative to the EU27 and other advanced economies before and after the 2016 referendum.

Trends show what happened, not why; Covid, energy prices and policy changes overlap the same years.

Indexed trends

Five measures, indexed to 2015 = 100

Each line is a country or group divided by its own 2015 value, multiplied by 100. A line above 100 is above its 2015 level; the chart does not show which way it should move.

1. Real GDP

Real GDP, index 2015 = 100, 2000 to 2025Line chart, 2000 to 2025, index 2015 = 100. The UK is the heavy ink line. The EU27 aggregate is a dashed dark line; Germany, France, Italy and Spain are solid tinted lines. The control median is a thin grey reference line. Dated markers and shaded periods show events.Index, 2015 = 10080100120200020052010201520202025123Spain122Control median121EU27117UK114France112Italy111Germany108Real GDP, index 2015 = 100, 2000 to 2025Line chart, 2000 to 2025, index 2015 = 100. The UK is the heavy ink line. The EU27 aggregate is a dashed dark line; Germany, France, Italy and Spain are solid tinted lines. The control median is a thin grey reference line. Dated markers and shaded periods show events.Index, 2015 = 10080100120200020102020123SpainControl medianEU27UKFranceItalyGermany
  • Heavy ink line: UK
  • Germany
  • France
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Dashed dark line: EU27 aggregate
  • Thin grey lines, reference countries (not the big four): Control median
  • Shaded: 2008–09 financial crisis
  • Shaded: 2020–21 Covid-19 pandemic
  • Shaded: 2022–23 energy price shock
  • Marker 1: EU referendum (23 June 2016)
  • Marker 2: UK leaves the EU (31 January 2020)
  • Marker 3: Transition period ends; Trade and Cooperation Agreement in force (1 January 2021)

Source: World Bank Indicators (WDI and WGI) · series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD· vintage 2026-11-06

Trends show what happened, not why; Covid, energy prices and policy changes overlap the same years.

2. Real GDP per head

Real GDP per head, index 2015 = 100, 2000 to 2025Line chart, 2000 to 2025, index 2015 = 100. The UK is the heavy ink line. The EU27 aggregate is a dashed dark line; Germany, France, Italy and Spain are solid tinted lines. The control median is a thin grey reference line. Dated markers and shaded periods show events.Index, 2015 = 10090100110200020052010201520202025123EU27115Spain115Italy113France109Control median108UK107Germany105Real GDP per head, index 2015 = 100, 2000 to 2025Line chart, 2000 to 2025, index 2015 = 100. The UK is the heavy ink line. The EU27 aggregate is a dashed dark line; Germany, France, Italy and Spain are solid tinted lines. The control median is a thin grey reference line. Dated markers and shaded periods show events.Index, 2015 = 10090100110200020102020123EU27SpainItalyFranceControl medianUKGermany
  • Heavy ink line: UK
  • Germany
  • France
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Dashed dark line: EU27 aggregate
  • Thin grey lines, reference countries (not the big four): Control median
  • Shaded: 2008–09 financial crisis
  • Shaded: 2020–21 Covid-19 pandemic
  • Shaded: 2022–23 energy price shock
  • Marker 1: EU referendum (23 June 2016)
  • Marker 2: UK leaves the EU (31 January 2020)
  • Marker 3: Transition period ends; Trade and Cooperation Agreement in force (1 January 2021)

Source: World Bank Indicators (WDI and WGI) · series NY.GDP.PCAP.KD· vintage 2026-11-06

Trends show what happened, not why; Covid, energy prices and policy changes overlap the same years.

3. Real investment (gross fixed capital formation)

Real investment (gross fixed capital formation), index 2015 = 100, 2000 to 2025Line chart, 2000 to 2025, index 2015 = 100. The UK is the heavy ink line. The EU27 aggregate is a dashed dark line; Germany, France, Italy and Spain are solid tinted lines. The control median is a thin grey reference line. Dated markers and shaded periods show events.Index, 2015 = 10075100125150200020052010201520202025123Italy151Spain138UK126EU27124France118Control median117Germany104Real investment (gross fixed capital formation), index 2015 = 100, 2000 to 2025Line chart, 2000 to 2025, index 2015 = 100. The UK is the heavy ink line. The EU27 aggregate is a dashed dark line; Germany, France, Italy and Spain are solid tinted lines. The control median is a thin grey reference line. Dated markers and shaded periods show events.Index, 2015 = 10075100125150200020102020123ItalySpainUKEU27FranceControl medianGermany
  • Heavy ink line: UK
  • Germany
  • France
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Dashed dark line: EU27 aggregate
  • Thin grey lines, reference countries (not the big four): Control median
  • Shaded: 2008–09 financial crisis
  • Shaded: 2020–21 Covid-19 pandemic
  • Shaded: 2022–23 energy price shock
  • Marker 1: EU referendum (23 June 2016)
  • Marker 2: UK leaves the EU (31 January 2020)
  • Marker 3: Transition period ends; Trade and Cooperation Agreement in force (1 January 2021)

Source: World Bank Indicators (WDI and WGI) · series NE.GDI.FTOT.KD· vintage 2026-11-06

Trends show what happened, not why; Covid, energy prices and policy changes overlap the same years.

4. Real trade (exports + imports of goods and services)

Real trade (exports + imports of goods and services), index 2015 = 100, 2000 to 2025Line chart, 2000 to 2025, index 2015 = 100. The UK is the heavy ink line. The EU27 aggregate is a dashed dark line; Germany, France, Italy and Spain are solid tinted lines. The control median is a thin grey reference line. Dated markers and shaded periods show events.Index, 2015 = 10075100125200020052010201520202025123EU27134Spain132Control median125Italy125UK123France121Germany119Real trade (exports + imports of goods and services), index 2015 = 100, 2000 to 2025Line chart, 2000 to 2025, index 2015 = 100. The UK is the heavy ink line. The EU27 aggregate is a dashed dark line; Germany, France, Italy and Spain are solid tinted lines. The control median is a thin grey reference line. Dated markers and shaded periods show events.Index, 2015 = 10075100125200020102020123EU27SpainControl medianItalyUKFranceGermany
  • Heavy ink line: UK
  • Germany
  • France
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Dashed dark line: EU27 aggregate
  • Thin grey lines, reference countries (not the big four): Control median
  • Shaded: 2008–09 financial crisis
  • Shaded: 2020–21 Covid-19 pandemic
  • Shaded: 2022–23 energy price shock
  • Marker 1: EU referendum (23 June 2016)
  • Marker 2: UK leaves the EU (31 January 2020)
  • Marker 3: Transition period ends; Trade and Cooperation Agreement in force (1 January 2021)

Source: World Bank Indicators (WDI and WGI) · series NE.EXP.GNFS.KD + NE.IMP.GNFS.KD· vintage 2026-11-06

Trends show what happened, not why; Covid, energy prices and policy changes overlap the same years.

5. GDP per hour worked

GDP per hour worked, index 2015 = 100, 2000 to 2024Line chart, 2000 to 2024, index 2015 = 100. The UK is the heavy ink line. Germany, France, Italy and Spain are solid tinted lines. The EU27 aggregate is not in this series. The control median is a thin grey reference line. Dated markers and shaded periods show events.Index, 2015 = 1009010011020002005201020152020123Germany106Control median105UK104Spain104France100Italy100GDP per hour worked, index 2015 = 100, 2000 to 2024Line chart, 2000 to 2024, index 2015 = 100. The UK is the heavy ink line. Germany, France, Italy and Spain are solid tinted lines. The EU27 aggregate is not in this series. The control median is a thin grey reference line. Dated markers and shaded periods show events.Index, 2015 = 10090100110200020102020123GermanyControl medianUKSpainFranceItaly
  • Heavy ink line: UK
  • Germany
  • France
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Thin grey lines, reference countries (not the big four): Control median
  • Shaded: 2008–09 financial crisis
  • Shaded: 2020–21 Covid-19 pandemic
  • Shaded: 2022–23 energy price shock
  • Marker 1: EU referendum (23 June 2016)
  • Marker 2: UK leaves the EU (31 January 2020)
  • Marker 3: Transition period ends; Trade and Cooperation Agreement in force (1 January 2021)

Source: OECD statistics, read through the DBnomics mirror (provider code OECD) · series DSD_PDB@DF_PDB_LV· vintage 2026-11-06

Trends show what happened, not why; Covid, energy prices and policy changes overlap the same years.

EU27 aggregate not available from this source.

Growth

Average annual growth by period

Compound annual growth of each level, in per cent. The latest period ends in 2025, the latest year with values for both the UK and the EU27.

Average annual growth, in per cent, by series and group, for four periods. Differences are in percentage points.
SeriesGroup2000–072010–152016–252016–25 excl. 2020–21
Real GDPUK2.761.941.341.98
EU272.421.221.571.91
Control median2.712.121.912.12
UK minus EU27 (percentage points)+0.33+0.72−0.23+0.07
Real GDP per headUK2.191.190.681.22
EU272.131.131.401.68
Control median1.781.180.810.86
UK minus EU27 (percentage points)+0.06+0.07−0.72−0.46
Real investmentUK3.813.722.313.09
EU273.010.722.172.84
Control median4.012.511.591.70
UK minus EU27 (percentage points)+0.80+3.00+0.14+0.25
Real tradeUK5.033.792.083.99
EU276.215.062.953.46
Control median4.904.592.272.65
UK minus EU27 (percentage points)−1.18−1.27−0.86+0.53
GDP per hour workedUK– no data0.58– no data– no data
EU27– not available– not available– not available– not available
Control median– no data1.12– no data– no data
UK minus EU27 (percentage points)– not available– not available– not available– not available

GDP per hour worked: EU27 aggregate not available from this source.

How this is calculated
  • productivity_gdp_hour: no year with both GBR and EU27 data; latest-period growth is null
  • productivity_gdp_hour EU27: no positive 2015 value; not indexed
  • Period end: latest year with both GBR and EU27 data is 2025.
  • Index: value / base-year value x 100, 1 dp, non-projection values from 2000.
  • Average annual growth: compound annual growth rate of the level from start-1 to end, n = end - start + 1 years, in %, 2 dp.
  • Excluding Covid: geometric mean of the annual growth ratios for the period's years, leaving out 2020 and 2021, in %, 2 dp.
  • control_median: median of NOR, CHE, USA, CAN, AUS and JPN where they have data.
  • uk_minus_eu27: UK minus EU27 in percentage points.
  • trade_real: real exports + real imports, per country-year where both exist.

What this site can't tell you

  • Trends show correlation, not causation. Covid, energy prices and policy changes overlap the same years, and these charts do not separate their effects.
  • Non-economic factors that people weigh, such as sovereignty, regulatory autonomy and migration policy, are not measured here.
  • Rejoining would not restore the terms of 2016. The euro, the UK rebate and the opt-outs would differ for a new member.

Published studies that estimate the effect of Brexit are collected in the research library.